Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Well, it’s all going horribly wrong. Macro Man took a loss on his one position that would currently be in the money (long EUR/JPY put), and was stopped out of long oil a few hours after putting the trade on. Even equities are looking OK, which spells trouble for the long volatility position. As for the short bond position- ugh. At 108, it is time to get out and think again. There have been some rumblings that the Fed was unhappy with the dovish reaction to the August statement/minutes, so perhaps we could get a hawkish surprise today – unit labor costs anyone? Failing that, it looks lie more trouble awaits the short bond position.