Thursday, March 15, 2012

King Sadim

TMM have experienced a six standard deviation day already and its only early morning. We didn't think that it would be possible for all the following to happen at once.

1) Fog.

2) Drivers, who despite being able to see to the next bend in the road as if there was no fog, insisting on doing 25mph AND switching on 3 kilowatts of red fog lights to indicate to the queue of cars IMMEDIATELY behind them that the driver of said 25mph car is a complete and utter moron.

3) Every traffic light en-route to have been hit by what can only be assumed to be the STUXNET virus. If that was you Iran, well done, score 1 point for bringing approach roads to London to a halt. IF however it wasn't you, can someone please fire some more public sector workers from the Department of Transport. Preferably the same ones that insist that closing lanes on the A303 is for OUR safety. We'll decide the levels of risk we'll take thank you.

4) Getting on the tube and realising that phone is left visible in the car in the car park.

5) USD/JPY - short and stopped at the top. So now not short.

6) AUD/CAD did turn but we listened to those who told us not to buy just yet.

7) Had hours of angst when daughter's Facebook status had "is looking forward to being a mum" before uncovering that she had been "fraped".

8) Took off their Bond shorts way too early (like, early last week) and so missed out on the past few days' carnage.

9) Lost money this month despite being bullish. TMM suck.

10) Two of TMM separately received £100 fines from HMRC for a late tax return despite it being said thieves department that failed to supply them with the code they needed to fill in online. TMM will return to pen and paper next year.

So TMM have decided that today they are the opposite of King Midas and will, for today only (they hope), be appearing as King Sadim - everything they touch that is golden turns to rubbish.

With that in mind here is a list of things they are about to touch which will most likely turn to rubbish later.

1) Long AUD/MXN. MXN is ringing Tabloid, TDI and DPI signals (see glossary) in TMM's minds, even if on a macro basis it is beautiful.

2) Short NOK/JPY. Same same, but different. Just as set for a correction and the Norges Bank yesterday was a trigger. Look at that chart!

3) Short FTSE - having cut longs and seen the nano-correction unwind, we are going to have a "JFDI" last swing but will be out at intraday highs. Not Macro but it may well become so if it works!

4) Short Gold through options. The hunt for the next funding currency is on as the USD loses its obviousness. JPY? Well, so obvious everyone is chasing tails and 85.00, but this is SO predicted it's probably NOT going to get there. CHF? Yes, Yes, Yes. And a nice floor too. But we have that already. So what about that funding currency of the late 1990s? The one that Ex-Investment banks, when they apparently DID have morals and work in the customer's interest, kindly persuaded the UK Treasury to participate in. GOLD! As gold goes down fast, up slower and as vols are still low, we are going to look at 2-month low delta puts. This trade is perfectly set up to be reverse Midas.

5) Long lunch. TMM have discovered that angst is best countered in a most un-American way. Instead of stepping up to plates, showing one's mettle or facing adversity they would much rather reminisce about the 90s with a nice steak and bottle of red.


Anonymous said...

Been doing 5) for past couple of days and yes I found it soothing

Anonymous said...

C says'
on (5),skip the steak and go with the chop ,it will be a winner.

CV said...

Commiserations on the commute into the Big Smoke. It is horrible on all levels! I am confined to Incubator (sorry tube), but using a car in London is a grueling experience.

Sorry about jettisoning that short bond position. That is an annoying one to miss. USDJPY as the new carry trade funder is a hit I think, I a big believer in that one.

BUT of course ... Benny may give us QE3 soon enough in 2012 as the US data sours.


Have fun at lunch ...


Anonymous said...

5) is the best trade ever - started doing it some 6 months ago and never regret any tick lost while I was out.. watch out for that tempting afternoon siesta.

Amplitudeinthehouse said...

Enjoy,Polemic,put yourself in a state ataxia , and if anyone puts shit on ya, tell them your Macro-Man blogger, FUCK OFF!

Leftback said...

Commiserations, TMM. Only an inspired shorting of gold miners saved LB from abject despair and self-flagellation yesterday. I think it's the weather over here. It's May in March! Of course, seasoned market observers know what to do in May, I mean March...

Anyway you're not alone in having the Sadim Touch this week. The FOMC have just inadvertently short-circuited the Spring selling and refinancing season in the US housing market, as mortgage rates will now spike higher for a month or longer. Well done, FOMC!

One wonders whether Bernanke REALLY intended to add 25 bps to longer term borrowing costs this week. ("I told you this would happen, Lacker, you tool..."). We are pretty sure that was not the desired result. Still, another hiccup in Europe and Treasury buyers will be out in force once again.

Recent of HY and even IG credit (aka, real Money punters or "muppets") may have problems going forward. Some of those most recently issued Jan/Feb US financial corporates are already trading at 95c on the $. Now imagine a summer of deteriorating growth prospects, credit ratings and widening spreads to Treasuries.... interestingly, ECRI are sticking to their guns on US recession call.

Anyway if the US has problems, no worries, Bernanke will simply turn into Chubby Checker...

Let's Twist Again

Chubby looks pretty good here.... somewhat reminiscent of TMM after that long lunch...... Have it, lads!

Anonymous said...

C says'
You have to love this stuff. Obvious attempts to create positive outcomes in consumption etc by negating energy costs ergo "releasing reserves" as a warning to energy market to back the f..k off and get nose out of trough. Good luck with that one.

Leftback said...

Add AAPL 600 and SPX 1400 to the Big Figures.
It's been like a Target Price big game hunt lately...

Wondering if TMM had a thoughtful "Dover Sole and Chablis" kind of lunch or if it was the full-on Porterhouse and 2007 Ch√Ęteauneuf? I think we all know the answer to that one. After all one must be fortified for the commute...

Gold trying to rally, GDX not having any of it.

Leftback said...

Here we go. It was only a matter of time. Funny how these blokes never post before the 25 bps move.

Generic Treasury Bubble Web Post

We will have about one million of these posted on the web in the next fortnight, before eventually the equity market pukes and The Wyddowemakker™ resumes taking human sacrifices.

Anonymous said...

Time to buy/sell banks? BAC?

Dee Dee Humberside said...

LB, what about Wyddowemakker and Bigfigureitis combined ... TLT 100 in Q2 anyone?

I'll be all over that and then some more, waiting for USA Inc. to decide in the second half that actually, they are going to wait out and see how this President and Congress and fiscal plans work out before they go out and capex/hiremorefolks.