Friday, April 06, 2012

Easter Poem.

Easter comes as every year
And with it brings a dose of cheer
For the bears who look again
To Eurowoes, this time from Spain.

For when we note their yields rise
It's time to sell in decent size
The other debt that Europe calls
"Defendable", as it always falls.

But slice the links
And as Spain sinks
She shall not drag
The others down

L T R O for all its flaws
Has shielded them from big bears claws
So though great profit is our aim
This time be warned - It ain't the same.

And far, far east where junks are kept
The "junk" you sold has now all leapt
As markets bounce as data cry  
"Growth is back", yet you deny.

It must be false! They made it up!
Coal sales are down in Buggerup!
For I know best, as I sit here
Eight thousand miles from the land I fear.

So now the mere is crowded out
With hides of hunters who all shout
"Mine's the Swan! The blackest one!
That I will down with my short gun".

But normality is not like that
For most its creep and crawl, or flat.
A drift, no thrills, just gentle grind
Where quick return is hard to find.

So cease thy bets on tails and jump
Back to the fat that's in the hump.
One day we'll die, yet doesn't mean
In coffins waiting we'll be seen.


ntwsc said...

Always a busy bun ;)
Ta Pol - and have a smashing Easter break one n' all.

Leftback said...

A lovely witty ditty.

Now, Mr P, your local American correspondent reports that US jobs were +120k, which was LOWER than his own bearish estimate. More worrying, hours worked declined, a traditionally less fudgeable component of the report.

So, congrats to all who had the fortitude to short into the weekend (not me). We are looking at a small underwater position having shorted the long end into this. Nevertheless, the easiest Kevlar Capital™ trade for the early part of the week seems to be to fade the plunge in yields. [After they stop plunging through your fingers - Ed].

The US economy isn't quite on the rocks yet, but the inflationists will have to have a rethink. Bulls will be sure to mount a jolly convincing bounce (QE3 in play, dudes!), but it may be the Exit Rally for 2012. Earnings are looming......

Leftback said...

While we are all nibbling on our Cadbury's creme eggs or whatever else you prefer to nibble on, LB offer this piece from the pink blog on the liquidity trap. In other words, why the QE isn't going to lead to massive inflation or to vibrant economic recovery, for that matter.

Why QE is Being Mis-Sold

This will save LB from having to bang on endlessly in this space about how we are currently retracing many of the steps of the Japanese following the bursting of their credit bubble. We also highly recommend reading of the Reinhart and Rogoff book which has probably been the single most useful tome we have read in terms of being mentally prepared for the last few years investment insanity.

Now if you're still convinced that it's Morning in America, and all kinds of Very Growthy Things are happening, with dangers of Severe Inflation, then we will simply wish you a jolly weekend.

Anonymous said...

@LB, I need to give you some credit after I inadvertently discovered something you recommended about a year ago. At that time you thought ZROZ was a good idea, it was less than $70.

Today I look at it (pretty much a fluke) and I see it over $98.

I never bought it. Fecklessness has its downside.......

Leftback said...

Thanks anon, ZROZ is a PIMCO ETF. I think most punters who visit this space know what zero coupon Treasuries are. The inimitable Mr Gary Shilling, for example, is fond of these "not for the yield (this is actually an inside joke) but for the appreciation".

Fixed income enthusiasts are thought by many to be relatively tedious, but even bond traders like to visit the STRIPs club from time to time....

Leftback said...

Kevlar capitalists are watching Iberian equities. TEF and EDP at 5 year lows, wondering if they are going to zero, or whether investors will snap up a nice big yield before that happens. Not rushing into this, but definitely on the radar. You don't have to fancy the country in general (or the banks) to take a modest punt on a few likely survivors.

CV said...

Indeed LB, Spanish equities are the talk of the office today in my little pond (one equity fund and one commodity fund).

Presumably, Spanish girls still need to call their boyfriends tomorrow and the day after ?


Anonymous said...

C says'
"Presumably, Spanish girls still need to call their boyfriends tomorrow and the day after ?"

Having just returned from London all i can suggest if you believe the above is buy VOD etc because I'm pretty sure most of the Spanish girls have moved to the UK and the Spanish boys' are busy chasing sheep around the mountains.
Alternatively ,cheap as we know can always get cheaper and IMO Spain has a long long way to go to find a bottom. We're not talking a global panic driven 2009 market for Spain,but a country that will have to remake itself for years to come. Picking winners against that backcloth appears to me simply too hard to do and certainly notions of "cheap" don't make much sense to me.
I've held that view for probably over 5 years now that Spain would end up being top of the cripple bill leaving aside the nonsense that has been played todate simply trying to buy time without any meaningful resolution of their real economic problem.
However let me never be the one to dissuade people from climbing onboard with their money.

CV said...

Well, it is all table talk for now C, I would not touch Spain right now as the mess will get bigger before it gets smaller.


Anonymous said...


Good thoughts about Spain. NBG is a good example. It was even reverse-split and still a dog!

Amplitudeinthehouse said...

Noted from someone not long ago...and now in process...we're seeing an adjustment in peripheral bond yields to FAIR VALUE!

Those LTRO bets are going as well as last weekends footy bets.

ps..Amplitudeinthehouse was last seen with a spring in his step!!

Leftback said...

Sign of the times, TMM and punters. There's a new Widowmaker in town. Guten Tag, Herr Schatz!

German 2 year below Japanese!

Cor blimey, guv'nor, It's tough to keep rates straight these days without Bobling it...!

Watching the aforementioned Iberian equities from afar, sitting on the cash....

Losing less money than the next bloke is the new killing it, today.

abee crombie said...

I am feeling the pain the schatz. Though I expected it, so the size is small. Looking to double up when rates hit 0. At some point real money will seek higher yields

But we are all in the wrong business though. we should just make a social media site, sharing comments and rhymes and get 20M teenagers following you, and BAM, you sell your company for $1Billion.

Leftback said...

You mean 20M teenagers aren't following us?

"Guess who just got back today,
Them wild-eyed bears that'd been away,
Haven't changed, had much to say,
But man, I still think them bears are crazy.

They were askin' if bulls were around,
How you was, where you could be found.
Told them you were livin' in Kentish Town,
Drivin' all the old girls crazy.

The bears are back in town,
I said The bears are back in town,
the bears are back in town.
The bears are back in town"

Polemic said...

Hehe.. enjoying that one LB

Polemic said...

Abee .. agree. Complete blx isn t it. When is FB or similar going to do what AOL did with Time Warner and buy a real company with mickey mouse expectation money?